This was the title of a presentation given by Jeff Rubin, an economist from CIBC World Markets at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (USA) conference taking place right now in the states.
According to the Oil Drum, Rubin showed a slide comparing the cost of shipping a 40 foot container from China to the US.
A few years ago, the cost would have been $3,000. It now costs $10,000. If oil rises to $150 a barrel, it will cost $15,000.
Think about this for a moment.
In a world where nations are fighting it out for the one resource the world relies on for...just about everything...the first major causality will be transport.
Yeah, you'll be driving and flying less, big deal, we can live with that. But as for imports, all that stuff we get via cheap labour in the east, what do you think will happen to that? What impact will that have on your life?
So what will happen?
At best: manged re-localisation, this is where transition initiatives and projects come into play on a local/regional scale, and government resources on the nationwide scale.
At worst: an unmanaged powerdown, nations battling it out, suffering on a huge scale and not just in the third world, this means us, "sitting here in my safe European home".
Matt Simmons, Richard Heinberg and John Hemming MP were on the World at One this lunchtime talking about Peak Oil. They all gave an excellent performance, getting to the point very, very quickly.
It was good to hear a British MP talking clearly and bullishly on the issue, the UK government is in denial (with predictions of sometime in 2030 for the peak in production) over peak oil and this is very worrying (though not surprising).
The Transition Towns movement is developing rapidly but there is only so much the community can do without the support of local and central government. Government can mobilise resources, facilitate community-led action, and force through the measures that need to be in place if we have a hope of navigating through what is going to be a fundamental change to the way in which we live.
I'm not a doomer, my nature is to be optimistic about the future but the stakes are very high in this case and we need everyone involved in a collective response (despite the knee-jerk reactions of the ultra-left and some anarchos).
It was good to hear a British MP talking clearly and bullishly on the issue, the UK government is in denial (with predictions of sometime in 2030 for the peak in production) over peak oil and this is very worrying (though not surprising).
The Transition Towns movement is developing rapidly but there is only so much the community can do without the support of local and central government. Government can mobilise resources, facilitate community-led action, and force through the measures that need to be in place if we have a hope of navigating through what is going to be a fundamental change to the way in which we live.
I'm not a doomer, my nature is to be optimistic about the future but the stakes are very high in this case and we need everyone involved in a collective response (despite the knee-jerk reactions of the ultra-left and some anarchos).
Jo and I watched the Joy Divison film 'Control' last night. It's an excellent film, enjoyable from many perspectives, very nostalgic, moving, troubled and beaufifully shot by Anton Corbijn.
The only downside is I found myself feeling frustrated that I could have seen this band a dozen times or so times in London, and yet I didn't actually start to like them until after the death of Ian Curtis...sigh.
The film closes with 'Atmosphere', a track that could easily lapse into bathos but instead is a beautiful and majestic track...it brought tears to my eyes.
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