Peak Oil - it ain't an internet cult

Matt Simmons, Richard Heinberg and John Hemming MP were on the World at One this lunchtime talking about Peak Oil. They all gave an excellent performance, getting to the point very, very quickly.

It was good to hear a British MP talking clearly and bullishly on the issue, the UK government is in denial (with predictions of sometime in 2030 for the peak in production) over peak oil and this is very worrying (though not surprising).

The Transition Towns movement is developing rapidly but there is only so much the community can do without the support of local and central government. Government can mobilise resources, facilitate community-led action, and force through the measures that need to be in place if we have a hope of navigating through what is going to be a fundamental change to the way in which we live.

I'm not a doomer, my nature is to be optimistic about the future but the stakes are very high in this case and we need everyone involved in a collective response (despite the knee-jerk reactions of the ultra-left and some anarchos).

Not getting it

From ASPO (The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas):

The battle against climate change must not take precedence over the need to guarantee energy security, UK Industry Minister John Hutton was quoted as saying today, remarks that signal an apparent policy change. The government has often said climate change is the biggest threat facing the world.

"Of course we've got to tackle climate change, it's a real and present danger for used (sic)," Hutton told the Daily Telegraph in an interview on the newspaper's website.

"But we've also go to be absolutely clear that our energy policy has got to be figured first and foremost with a view to supplying Britain with affordable and secure energy it needs for the future." (see original post)

By secure and affordable energy is Hutton referring to a continued reliance on carbon? The carbon that is either peaked or is peaking? Take your pick: oil gas are peaking (or have peaked) and we certainly don''t have endless supplies of coal and uranium

Climate Change and Energy Security are intrinsically linked and to try to prise them apart and prioritise one over the other...well that scares me.

The Investigation - a major disappointment

I just listened to this week's The Investigation on Radio 4. Described as 'Simon Cox investigates the truth behind rising oil prices' it was a major disappointment.

Cox spends half an hour looking for the culprit behind rising prices. The usual suspects are trundled out for view, i.e: oil producers and futures speculators, all the time ignoring the elephant of Peak Oil standing in the middle of the room knocking the china all over the place.

Most of the programme is spent with Cox buying oil futures, getting nowhere fast.

The most interesting part of the programme is when he talks to Mike Wagstaff of North Sea oil drillers 'Venture Production'.

Surprisingly, Wagstaff talks about the 'end of cheap abundant energy', oil as a 'depleting commodity' and an industry with no spare rigs or engineers on tap for new drilling, all pretty much standard Peak Oil arguments.

All this is blithely missed (or ignored) by Cox who is happier playing the futures market and watching his investment take a dive.

This show could have been a big step forward, helping to bring Peak Oil into the mainstream, an opportunity missed, what a shame.

To make up for this, take a look at Matt Simmons, an energy insider bullishly making the case in the US:

It’s the size of the tap...

I think it is really important to understand that Peak Oil is not about oil 'running out' (which, of course it will do one day, eventually). Rather, as the good folk at the Oil Drum like to put it it: "It’s the size of the tap, not the size of the tank."

Gail Tverberg states the case with clarity and precision:

"On a worldwide basis, the phenomenon of peak oil can be thought of as a crisis in resources needed to produce oil. It’s the size of the tap, not the size of the tank. As we deplete the large, easy-to-produce fields and move to ever-more-difficult fields, it takes more and more oil rigs, more petroleum engineers, and more investment dollars.

Eventually we reach a point where we are out of equipment, out of trained personnel, and the investment cost for expanding production becomes prohibitive. When production begins to drop because of all of these pressures, we reach peak oil'." 

I highly recommend reading the full article ' What is Peak Oil?'.

Ether

Oil hit $140 a barrel for the first time today, with warnings it could reach $170 later this year...golly!

Interesting to contrast that to the post on today's Peak Oil Debunked (don't be put off by the title, it is a dig at Doomers, whom the blog critiques) which presents a series of graphs showing a decline in oil consumption in countries such as Japan, German, Italy and Sweden.

So what is going on here? If consumption falls then surely prices should follow? At least that's what I learnt in my economics classes at university (when I wasn't snoozing that is).

Strange times indeed.

I was thinking about the London Olympic games today and started laughing, such a stupid waste of resources, such a stupid waste of time, old Nero has nothing on Gordon and the Mayor.

Peak Oil activities

I've so many thoughts, ideas, questions and feelings I want to get down on the subject of oil-depletion, peak oil, the post-carbon world...call it what you will.

I'm trying to see how I can group my posts under headings, which will hopefully help to clarify things.

Here's my working list of Peak Oil activities (POA):

• budget - work out what we have, what we spend, where we can cut-back, where we can save
• growing food - starting with the back garden, moving on to the allotment (when we get one), a spot of guerilla gardening and even the balcony at work. All using permaculture design techniques.
  
• activism - mainly focused (for now) on Transition Town (city!) status for Ely
• theory - applying Ken Wilber's Integral AQAL approach to all this
• psychological / spiritual development
• physical health
• clear understanding of the facts, theories, options
  
• more, more, more, there must be more but that's it for now, dinner is calling!
  

Practical responses to Peak Oil - An Integral approach

This doesn't exist yet (as far as I can see). I guess it is my big project...the integral AQAL framework is perfect for this complex area.

Expect more...

Peak Oil moving up the agenda?

(Note: this post has also been published on the Ely Sustainable City blog)

Good to see that EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs acknowledging the existence of Peak Oil in his blog. His latest post is worth reading for an insight into some of the thinking taking place in Brussels.

While you're there, take a look at the comments further down the page. One response is from a Doomer, which is interesting only to demonstrate the ridiculous knots these people can tie themselves in. A more considered, and critical, response, is from Euan Mearns, editor of the excellent Oil Drum (Europe).

Also good to discover the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas (APPGOPO). I had no idea such a group existed in UK politics!

They have a useful website with MP3s of talks, including one by Rob Hopkins on Transition Towns, well worth downloading from the site. There is also a link to an online petition urging the government to re-evaluate their position on an imminent peak in global oil production.

So...good to see Peak Oil slowly making its way into the mainstream.

Peaks and troughs

What is Peak Oil?

“Peak Oil is about the end of cheap and plentiful oil, the recognition that the ever increasing volumes of oil being pumped into our economies will peak and then inexorably decline. It’s about understanding how our industrial way of life is absolutely dependent on this ever-increasing supply of cheap oil.”
(Transition Initiatives Primer)

So last night four of us met to watch the ‘The Power of Community' DVD. How did I arrive here?

For my part, I first heard of Peak Oil a year or so ago via the ever excellent ‘Alchemically Braindamaged’ blog/podcast.

Since that first exposure, I have gone through three distinct phases.

Phase one –denial: My first reaction was to treat Peak Oil as yet another internet conspiracy fad. I made a note of it for interest’s sake and then ignored the whole thing.

Phase two - anxiety: The problem with denial was that this ‘thing’ kept coming back. Further mentions in blogs I respected, an article in The Guardian, rising petrol prices.

I conducted a little research and started lying awake at night worrying. I desperately searched Google for ‘peak oil fallacy’ but uncovered absolutely nothing to reassure me.

Phase three - acceptance: Then suddenly, and only very recently, I passed through to the next phase. Peak Oil didn’t have to be treated as a ‘Year Zero’ doomsday scenario. Yes, it was very serious but inventing Mad Max scenarios at 3am in the morning was not going to help.

I looked around on the web again and came across the Transition Towns (TT) movement.

What are Transition Towns?

“The thinking behind (Transition Towns) is simply that a town using much less energy and resources than currently consumed could, if properly planned for and designed, be more resilient, more abundant and more pleasurable that the present.

Given the likely disruptions ahead resulting from Peak Oil and Climate Change, a resilient community - a community that is self-reliant for the greatest possible number of its needs - will be infinitely better prepared than existing communities with their total dependence on heavily globalised systems for food, energy, transportation, health and housing.”
(Transition Initiatives Primer)

With the TT imitative I found something positive, something concrete I could do in the face of the more-than-likely life-changing possibilities heralded by the end of cheap oil.

Unsure where to start, I emailed the East Cambs Green Party to see what they made of TTs. I got back a useful, friendly email which put me in touch with other Ely residents interested in setting something up here.

One of those residents invited me to the DVD showing, which I saw last night…

First steps towards sustainable Ely...

Tonight I joined three other Ely residents to watch a video dealing with how Cuba dealt with its very own Peak Oil crisis after the collapse of the USSR. The video is called 'The Power of Community' and is very much worth seeing.

I could write a lot more here but I am tired and want to be fit and full of energy for tomorrow night's climb at the Castle.